Bet on Cycling

Saturday 2 July – Passage du Gois La Barre de Monts > Mont des Alouettes Les Herbiers 191.5 KM
On July 2nd of 2011 the riders of 22 teams (18 teams of the UCI WorldTour + 4 “wildcard temas” will start with the 1st stage of the Tour de France 2011. This year there will be NO prologue. the Tour de France starts with a race in line, which gives everybody a chance to win the first yellow jersey. So chances are that a sprinter will wear the yellow jersey after the 1st stage.

The Tour will start with a stage over the unrfamous “Passage du gois” back in 1999 this road (that is only “dry” a few hours a day) was also part of the TDF. Numerous crashes costed Michael Boogerd and Alex Zulle their overall classification.  This year the Passage du gois is only part of the ceremony, so no racing on this slippery road this year!

The rest of the stage is fairly flat, the finish is uphill though on a climb of 4th category which will give “sprinters with a good punch” and men that normally do well in the Flemish classics a very good chance of winning. My bet would be on Philippe Gilbert!

Sunday – 3 July Les Essarts > Les Essarts 23 KM
The 2nd stage is a flat Team Trial. The stage will probably be won by a team with a bunch of good time trialists, probably HTC or Sky. I would place a bet on Team Sky.

Monday 4 July  - Olonne sur Mer > Redon 198 km
3rd stage:  Flat as can be with only 1 minor climb of 4th category in it, the finish is also flat, a sprinter will win, period. Cavendish or Pettachi will do their trick this time. I would take Pettachi for this stage, Cav needs a little time to catch his groove.

Tuesday 5 July – Lorient > Mûr-de-Bretagne 172.5 km
4th stage:  Again very flat stage, minor climb of 4th stage somewhere halfway, finish is uphill on “Mur-de-Bretagne” a climber with a good punch will win. Gilbert will take this one probably. Good outsiders: Cadel Evans, Contador or LL Sanchez. Gilbert is the safe way to go, but I wouldnt pick him I guess. Odds will be sour on him, rather take an outsider.

Wednesday 6 July – Carhaix > Cap Fréhel 164.5 km
5th stage:  not entirely flat. I expect a surprise this stage. Some guuys with a good punch will try to win this stage. Expect sprinters from 2nd line as well. Bozic, Voeckler etc. I would take a pick depending on the odds, gonna be a longshot anyway.

Thursday 7 July – Dinan > Lisieux 226.5 km
6th stage:  First somewhat hilly stage, 2 climbs of 3rd stage, 1 of 4th and the last 1500 m. also has a mean climb in it, so I wouldnt count on a bunch sprint today. Today is the longest stage this Tour. So the winner is somebody with serious stamina. Gilbert again?

Friday 8 July – Le Mans > Châteauroux 218 km
7th stage:  Last chance for the sprinters before we move into the hills. bunchsprint for sure. Cavendish will take this one down!

Saturday 9 July – Aigurande > Super-Besse Sancy 189 km
8th stage:  Things are getting serious now. 2 climbs of 4th, 1 of 2nd and finish uphill on 3rd category. I expect a small group to fight it out. Expect a few French guys + the guys that are interested in the polka dot jersey (Best climber). I expect a lot from Vacansoleil too. Hoogerland, Voeckler, those kind of guys.

Sunday 10 July – Issoire > Saint-Flour 208 km
9th stage: This stage will be won by one of the guys that were in yesterday’s breakaway. Take your pick early in the morning, just back all the riders that were in yesterday’s breakaway!

Monday 11 July – Le Lioran Cantal
Rest day

Tuesday 12 July – Aurillac > Carmaux 158 km
10th stage:  This stage in some sort of transition stage. A mass sprint is not unlikely, though.

Wednesday 13 July – Blaye-les-Mines > Lavaur 167.5 km
11th stage:  More or less the same kind of stage, the stage is more flat than yesterday, I don’t see how we can avoid a mass sprint.

Thursday 14 July – Cugnaux > Luz-Ardiden 211 km
12th stage: HALLELUJAH… First mountain stage and a serious one… It is also Quatorze Juilliet! That is a French national holiday, expect a lot of French guys in front today. For some reason I am not sure what will happen: If there is not too much shape in the classification I think Contador would want to make a statement early and just win this stage. If the guys upfront are already behind in the classification I expect a rider from a French team to do well as well as some climbers that are not real contenders for the overall classification. Voeckler, Charteau, Poels would be my pick for today.

Friday 15 July – Pau > Lourdes 152.5 km
13th stage: 1 real climb on the menu: Col d’Aubisque, once they reach the top it will be downhill for 42 km to the finish, I expect a guy like Vino, Cancellara or Sam. Sanchez today all excellent in downhill sections.

Saturday 16 July –  Saint-Gaudens > Plateau de Beille 168.5 km
14th stage: Today will probably be won by a some good climber that fell back a little for some reason. I expect some Spanish guys and maybe some of the helpers of the big guns. Bauke Mollema of Rabobank perhaps?

Sunday 17 July – Limoux > Montpellier 192.5 km
15th stage:  Just FLAT, Cav proved to take the mountains very well, this stage will be a duel between Cav and Alejet (Alessandro Pettachi). I’ld put some money on Cav.

Monday 18 July Département de la Drôme
Rest day

Tuesday 19 July – Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux > Gap 162.5 km
16th stage: Just a climb of 2nd category with it’s summit on 11 km from the finish. Sam. Sanchez or Cancellara. I would pick Sam. Sanchez.

Wednesday 20 July - Gap > Pinerolo 179 km
17th stage: Same scenario as yesterday, some mediocre climbing to do followe by a climb of 2nd category 8 km from the finish. A good downhill will win this stage.  Seen the fact that this stage is a lot more difficult I dont think that Sam. Sanchez gets enough room to do his downhill this stage. somebody from the breakaway group will win. No idea yet…

Thursday 21 July Pinerolo > Galibier – Serre Chevalier 200.5 km
18th stage: 3  ”Hors category” climbs today. A guy from the top 10 will win, We just have to see which one that will be. The top3 will probably be too busy watching each other holding each other by the throat.

Friday 22 July – Modane Valfréjus > Alpe-d’Huez 109.5 km
19th stage: Hammer time. If you are not wearing the yellow jersey and still have some juice left in your legs,: today is your last chance of winning the Tour de France. The finish is on top of Alpe-d’Huez. Expect a lot of Dutch guys attacking today since the flanks will be filled with orange supporters supproting their fellow country men. Gesink and Poels will be the guys to watch.

Saturday 23 July – Grenoble > Grenoble 42.5 km
20th stage:  A medium-long time trial. Cancellara, who else?

Sunday 24 July – Créteil > Paris Champs-Élysées 95 km
21th stage: arrival on the Champs Elysees. Again: the big guns of sprint that saved themzelves a little last few days. Expect to see Alejet, McEwen, Dean, Farrar and Cav.